Lombardi Hunting: AFC Edition
2-part series of Jaime's initial predictions for the 2025 NFL season alongside key questions that need answers for their success this year
The NFL season inches closer as the summer rolls along and teams wrap up mandatory minicamp. Coaching staffs across the league are getting good looks at their offseason additions and their returning franchise cornerstones months after Super Bowl LIX. Every team strives to win a Lombardi trophy in the end, but that goal is more tenable for some teams than others.
In this 2-part series, I’ll be submitting my initial predictions for the 2025 NFL season, alongside what I believe is the key issue they need to resolve next year. A team’s success during the season will depend on fixing their issues and overcoming their biggest hurdles. Let’s see who will blitz through the finish line of the regular season and who will fall flat on their face.
This list is split in two halves. The first one will cover the AFC, where teams like the Chiefs, Patriots, and Steelers reside. The second article will go through the NFC, home to the Eagles, Packers, and 49ers. Let’s jump into the AFC, in descending order of best to worst record (with playoff teams in bold).
Baltimore Ravens 15-2
Key: Can they solve their playoff woes?
Baltimore is a regular season juggernaut. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry skyrocketed the offense last year, and their defense found their footing after a rough start to the season. Everything points up, but they haven’t won more than two playoff games in a postseason since their 2012 Super Bowl run. In the past two seasons, they’ve lost one-score games to both Kansas City and Buffalo. If they want a chance to hoist a third Lombardi, they need to show up when it matters and prove to these two juggernauts they’re the best team in the conference.
Buffalo Bills 13-4
Key: Can they break the Chiefs Wall and reach the Super Bowl?
Reigning league MVP Josh Allen and the Bills show no signs of slowing down. Alongside Allen’s stellar year, James Cook excelled as one of the league’s top backs, and the defense quelled many of the preseason doubts. What remains to be seen is if they can overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs. In the past five seasons they’ve lost all four of their postseason clashes against Mahomes, with their last three within three to six points of scoring differential. That needs to change for them to get to the Super Bowl. Can Josh crack the Mahomes/Reid code and lead Buffalo to possibly its first Lombardi?
Kansas City Chiefs 13-4
Key: Can the offense revert to early Mahomes levels?
Speaking of, the Chiefs have their own issues to resolve after getting tossed around by the Eagles in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs need to find that offensive spark again, the same one that gave us a 54-51 game against the Rams on Monday Night Football. They haven’t needed top offensive performances to win games, as the defense is way better than it was in Mahomes’ first few years. But as the Super Bowl proved, you need that explosiveness to carry you when your defense falters. The two x-factors will be whoever emerges as the top receiver in a similar role to Tyreek Hill (either Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy) and the running game stepping up from last year with a healthier Isaiah Pacheco.
Denver Broncos 12-5
Key: Will Bo Nix avoid a sophomore slump?
Denver seemingly found their quarterback in Bo Nix after a solid rookie campaign. They also had success on both sides of the ball, making the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade. This offseason saw the arrival of tight end Evan Engram, running back JK Dobbins, defensive tackle DJ Jones, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and safety Talanoa Hufanga to the team. Denver also had a strong draft, taking players like Jahdae Barron, RJ Harvey, and Pat Bryant. Teams go as far as their quarterback takes them, meaning they’ll need Bo Nix to take the next step if they want to compete in the conference.
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-6
Key: How far will Aaron Rodgers take this team?
The Rodgers-Steelers offseason saga finally ends with Aaron signing a 1-year deal. Now that the contract’s been signed, the question becomes how far will Aaron Rodgers take the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s been a perennial playoff contender regardless of quarterback play and offensive scheme, but the mediocrity at the quarterback position wasted the valuable years of stars like TJ Watt and Cam Heyward. Rodgers quietly put up a good season after a slow start, giving many hope for that elusive playoff win the Steelers haven’t had in almost a decade. The relationship between Rodgers and Arthur Smith will be vital for the success of the offense, and the team.
Houston Texans 10-7
Key: Will the offensive line hold back the offense?
Houston enters next year looking to bounce back after an underwhelming year, particularly from CJ Stroud and the offense. They remade the receiving corps adding Christian Kirk and Iowa State rookies Higgins and Noel and replaced offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik with former Rams passing game coordinator Nick Caley. All signs point upward, except the continuous problem with Houston: offensive line. They traded away their star left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington, but signed former Viking tackle Cam Robinson and drafted Minnesota tackle Aireontae Ersery in the second round. Will this be enough to stabilize the offense and keep Stroud clean and healthy?
Cincinnati Bengals 10-7
Key: Offense is fine, but will the defense step up?
Last year Cincinnati proved its offense was not an issue, with Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase having career years. But the defensive side of the ball cost them many games, leading to the firing of coordinator Lou Anarumo. They hired Notre Dame’s DC Al Golden and had a respectable 25 takeaways last year, but Trey Hendrickson and 1st round pick Shemar Stewart’s contract situations are still not resolved, and they released their productive linebacker Germaine Pratt. They didn’t splash in free agency either, so will their defensive unit be enough to help Burrow lead this team to similar heights reached with their 2021 Super Bowl appearance?
Los Angeles Chargers 10-7
Key: What receiver will step up and complement Ladd McConkey?
McConkey emerged as the top target for Justin Herbert in the Chargers’ offense. He caught 82 of his 112 targets for 1,149 yards and 7 touchdowns, alongside an excellent 197 yd 1 TD playoff performance. Now, after finding their top dog in the former Georgia Bulldog, LA needs to flesh out the rest of their receiving core. Will Quentin Johnston improve after a decent 2024 campaign? Or will their Ole Miss rookie Tre Harris take the role of their number 2 pass catcher?
New England Patriots 9-8
Key: Will the offense take a leap in Drake Maye’s 2nd year?
The Patriots have found their guy in Drake Maye, but that hardly translated to wins last year with a porous roster. This offseason focused on just that: the team signed Milton Williams, Stefon Diggs, Carlton Davis, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, Morgan Moses, Garrett Bradburry, and Mack Hollins. They also drafted LSU tackle Will Campbell, Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson, and Wazzu receiver Kyle Williams. The whole roster was upgraded, and the team hired Mike Vrabel as head coach and Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator. The roster isn’t entirely fixed, but now it’s up to Maye to perform and lead New England to wins.
New York Jets 8-9
Key: Can Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields move the needle?
The Jets did a complete reset at all levels: new general manager, new coach, and new quarterback. This time, the team is rolling with star defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn as head coach and former Steelers and Bears quarterback Justin Fields. They also invested in both offensive line and secondary during the offseason, signing corners Brandon Stephens and Isaiah Oliver, safety Andre Cisco, and center Josh Myers, while drafting tackle Armand Membou and corner Azareye’h Thomas early. The team still has top talent like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Quinnen Williams, and Sauce Garner, but has fallen short of a winning record throughout their time with the team. Can Glenn take the Lions’ winning culture and make it the Jets’ own? Will Fields play to his potential?
Tennessee Titans 7-10
Key: Could Cam Ward have a Daniels/Stroud impact for the Titans?
Won’t go as far as saying they will make the playoffs, but I believe Tennessee will find their quarterback of the future in the number one overall pick, Cam Ward. Tennessee was active in free agency, most notably beefing the offensive line, signing Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler, as well as signing long-time Seattle wideout Tyler Lockett opposite Calvin Ridley. The Titans also addressed the offense with the draft, taking Texas tight end Gunnar Helm and wideouts Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor, with Ward’s college pass catcher Xavier Restrepo signing as an undrafted free agent. The offense will most likely look very different from the Will Levis era, but it will take them a year at least before they are ready to compete.
Miami Dolphins 6-11
Key: What will a secondary after a Jalen Ramsey trade look like?
After a few years of playoff contention, this will be the first true down year of the Mike McDaniel era. I’m not worried about the offense- they’ve proven competitive when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, with weapons like De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. I’m not worried about the defensive front, which added the Michigan tackle Kenneth Grant and still has players like Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. I’m concerned about the secondary, especially after the looming Jalen Ramsey trade. Ramsey would be exiting a secondary room of Storm Duck, Ashtyn Davis, Kader Kohou, and free agents Ifeatu Melifonwu and Artie Burns. In total, Miami needs to address this roster hole before the season if they are to trade Ramsey. Luckily, Green Bay just released cornerback Jaire Alexander. We’ll see if Miami pursues this big opportunity.
Las Vegas Raiders 5-12
Key: Will Ashton Jeanty and Geno Smith ignite the offense?
The Raiders went through massive changes this offseason, hiring Pete Carroll as their new head coach, John Spytek as the new general manager, and trading for quarterback Geno Smith. They also extended star defensive end Maxx Crosby and signed many players in free agency to short term contracts. The biggest addition was drafting the star rusher from Boise State, Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders really missed production from the backfield last year after letting Josh Jacobs go, as well as talent at the quarterback position since Derek Carr left two years ago. The conference is competitive, but don’t be surprised if both Jeanty and Smith galvanize this franchise (even if my projection is low).
Indianapolis Colts 4-13
Key: Will it finally click for Anthony Richardson, if he can play?
The Colts have truly been stuck in the mud at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement before the 2019 season. Now, their 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson reaggravated the same shoulder that limited him to five games his rookie campaign, and the presumed starting passer if Richardson misses time is… Daniel Jones. They drafted Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard this year, but that is hardly inspiring. The roster is competent enough to win games, with Jonathan Taylor, a strong receiving core, and a stingy defense. However, the inefficiency of their quarterback carousel will catch up to them this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-14
Key: Will Trevor Lawrence lead the team back to the postseason?
No, but the pieces are there on offense. Brian Thomas Jr. was the best rookie wideout and already one of the league’s best. Now the receiving room gets bolstered with the additions of Dyami Brown and the electric Heisman winner Travis Hunter, who will apparently also take snaps in the secondary. The running back room also saw the emergence of Tank Bigsby last year as a complementary back to Travis Etienne. Trevor has the tools to be a top quarterback in the league and has succeeded before. Unfortunately, other teams are just better and have more promise to their futures, while Jacksonville seems to be trending downward. The AFC South is also the most volatile division in the conference, so there’s always a chance. But not this year.
Cleveland Browns 1-16
Key: What will they do at QB (again)?
Barring a few years of rare stability at the position, this is the eternal question Cleveland has had to answer since rejoining the league in 1999. This time, the Browns have four options: long-time Raven Joe Flacco, returning to a team he rallied to the postseason in 2023; former Steeler Kenny Pickett, who disgruntledly was traded away to Philadelphia after being benched and replaced as the starter; Dillon Gabriel, a 5th round pick who, while piloted a lethal Oregon offense last year wasn’t highly projected; and Shedeur Sanders, who at one point was projected number one overall in this year’s draft, but had an astronomical slide to the 5th round. Regardless of who wins the job, I cannot pick them over a majority of their schedule. In the wise words of Juju Smith-Schuster, “The Browns is the Browns.”